COST 

The course fees are: US$2150 per participant (Malaysians). (US$2490 for overseas participants) There are discounts for more participants from the same organization. Registration should be done with Timberlake Consultants Ltd at http://www.timberlake.co.uk.The cost includes course materials, course dinner, lunch, refreshments and the use of computers. The number of delegates is restricted. Please register early to guarantee your place. Further instructions will be sent with the joining instructions.

Local arrangements including hotel bookings are made by

Dr. Muthi Samudram, Global Economics Sdn Bhd, Tel:605-2530028, Fax:605-2420028,E-mail: muthi@pc.jaring.my

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          AGENDA        

                                                          (subject of minor changes)                                        

 Day 1 

• Welcome and introduction to econometric modeling

• Review of basic econometric ideas: simple univariate modeling; cointergration; equilibrium correction model; vector autoregressions

• Structural time-series modeling

• Kalman filtering using STAMP

• The behavior of the real exchange rate

• Nonlinear dynamics in real exchange rates

• Real exchange rate determination in emerging markets ( the JP Morgan approach);

 PRACTICAL SESSIONS 

1. Cointegration Analysis, nominal exchange rates and relative prices, the purchasing power parity hypothesis

2. A structural time series model of the nominal exchange rate

3. A nonlinear model of the real exchange rate

 Day 2 

• A conventional monetary model of nominal exchange rate determination

• Nonlinear dynamics in a conventional exchange rate determination model

• Time-varying volatility modeling

• Review including a survey of current application

• Forecasting exchange rates using the term structure of forward premiums and error correction models

 PRACTICAL SESSIONS 

1. A nonlinear model of nominal exchange rate determination

2. GARCH/ARCH models of nominal exchange rates

3. A vector error correction, term-structure forecasting model of exchange rate.

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TERMS AND CONDITIONS 

Registration closes 5 calendar days prior to the start of the course. 

CANCELLATIONS: 

• Full fee returned for cancellations made over 28 calendar days prior to start of the course.

• Half-fee returned for cancellation made 14 calendar days prior to the start of course

• No fee returned for cancellation made less than 14 calendar days prior to the start of the course.

 Payment of course fees required prior to the course start date. 

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